LennStar Bill Batchelor Lottery tickets doesnt go up in value consistently over a period of almost ten years. It all depends on how much personal enjoyment they get compared to the cost to own them. All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. For more casual sampling, have a look at this complete list of all posts since the beginning of time or download the mobile app. I have these lovely tulip bulbs for sale, please PM me. Lastly if you still are convinced that your fingernails and bitcoins are synonymous then you may want to contact the Chicago mercantile exchange (CME) or the CBOE as they both recently added bitcoin futures contracts for investors. Vijay What ICO do you own? January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. I know have around $20k in crpyto having invested around $3500. Consensus over its value. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. January 2, 2018, 8:01 pm. This MMM article seems almost contradictory to what has become an investment philosophy that reciprocates with many people. The thing these pro-crypto guys never properly address is that even if we accept that cryptocurrencies may someday be useful, what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? Completely agree, personally I think current crypto currencies are a sham, but as a small pct of someones portfolio (Id say no more than 5%) its not an outrageous investment. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. But anyway.you need a little imagination to see the value it has for the first world, because it has to arise from something other than a replacement for something preexisting. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw3WkySh_Ho. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Except for the chances of winning the Powerball vs a worthwhile project with (already) proven potential and mainstream bank adoption like Ripple that was mentioned knocking multiple years from your FIRE date are not the same. SMH. The internet became an amazing avenue for wealth. Because reasons, technology and internet! in my opinion. You could always follow the Long Island Iced Tea model: 1. Why? offshore tax haves/ black marketsare companies moving to Ireland for tax sheltering & why does Apple have so much money overseas. Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. Probably not, because life is better and wealthier when you arent living a life of crime. Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. Marketed to unsophisticated investors as a get-rich-quick scheme. I had no idea the market capitalization of Bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies are so high. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. Is Bitcoin eventually going to replace the physical green back dollars and coins in our pockets? Ive been watching this with fascination as its been a while since we have seen a hype and crash investment (because we only know which way this is going to go, right)??? Staying the Course in War-Time. Consequently, theres a very limited way in which gold can feed you (and bitcoin cant), Uberartist Ill stick with the stock market thank you very much. Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. And whenever the price bubble pops, you also have a $2700 paperweight. Seems to Petes point, theres an awful lot of marketing push behind something that has dubious use cases and limited long term value. Things arent as crazy as 2000, but this is the 2nd highest peak of all time. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. MMM writes things like currency should not be artificially sparse and should expand. Travis, your are right. As a result, changes in perceived value result in big price swings. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. It is accumulated by countries, banks, and careful funancial entities. 36 terawatt is not something taken easily from renewables at current rates.. Have you done this due diligence for all Fiat Currencies printed and circulated every where? If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. You will also have to pay a fee to transfer from the exchange to your wallet. (Serious question. Appreciate the term scarcity. However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. NOTHING HAPPENS! Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. Its a huge money maker if you can bet that youre not the bigger fool. The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. Mr. Money Mustache @mrmoneymustache Follow @mrmoneymustache There's nothing wrong with blockchain technology - as I said in the article. Mattheus Cryptos appear to be the latest mania and in its current form will most certainly suffer the fate of the other manias that have happened in the past. I think we can all agree a cure for cancer is immensely valuable to society (blockchain may or may not be, we still have to see), however, how much is a Cancer-Pill worth? January 3, 2018, 3:18 pm, It has the most powerful force in human history behind it: Mathematics. if there was something I wanted to buy online from another country and they didnt take the dollar for whatever reason its an OK solution. Thats almost the opposite of how hydroelectric dams work (I did a couple years of power research in Quebec, which also has massive dams). Federal reserve banks and elected governments. Like my double comment? Reply. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. I dont get the whole thing where people think fiat currency is just useless paper and then turn to gold. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. Lets get this straight: in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things: Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. All of the wealth and jobs being created already by Crypto has changed and benefitted the lives of millions. In short, historically gold is the truest measure of value, the safest store of wealth, and best insurance against fiat money and other manias (see Weimar Republic circa 1934). The government has done some sickening things to ensure the wealthy and powerful stay wealthy and powerful. Bitcoin is extremely risky, but it is not dumb and its value is also based on consensus. But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. However, cryptocurrency is what incentivizes the network to secure a blockchain, so theyre two sides of the same coin. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. For those saying specific instances of cryptocurrency do not have long-term potential (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, etc), the network effect is a force to be reckoned with. The amount of people who have posted on /r/personalfinance this year who sold crypto, then bought back in, and lost big, is astounding. Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. Not only stocks, but real estate and bonds are expensive as well. There are dozens more data points just like these. Personally I fail to see the reference between Failhypecoins and retails challenges with shopping online. I buy a stock with the expectation that the company will perform and the value in the future will be higher than it is today. I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. Most of this money is being spent on military operations to secure foreign resources and kill people will dissenting viewpoints in the name of national security. Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. Google, Amazon and Facebook came out of it. Well, imagine you are in 1963 and you hear the speech I have a dream from Martin Luther King on abolishing slavery and you ask the question Why do you think this will happen?. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Michael No difference there. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am, If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it. The truly irrational. I guess Petes point here is that block chain protocol has benefits but bitcoin is stupid. Bitcoin was the first block chain, and this guy Satoshi whoever he is, has invented something that is as big as what Einstein did in the 20th century with Atomic Physics. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Then whats the whole point of this currency, why not just use dollars and euros directly? January 3, 2018, 12:14 pm. How much do you have invested in BTC? Most of the 1000s of cryptos (and maybe even bitcoin) will fail, but the few that remain will change the world. If a good provides value to just one person without hurting anyone else, then it provides value to society. For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. Also if youre going to start the whole not everywhere is like the U.S. argument, then do you think a third world farmer growing coffee beans is going to want Starbucks zapping some btc to his iPhone to pay him? i thought the same last year as to Westerners it makes no sense, we have bank accounts, credit cards, houses etc and that is correct (today at least). January 4, 2018, 7:42 am. To compare with fiat currency, we need to consider fiat currencys rippling effect on society. positive change I would say, the world is getting smaller) changes is because it makes things easier. And then follow that thread all the way back to the fact that the future blockchain(s) all of these future uses are built on are going to be continuations of the most valuable blockchains of today because valuable blockchains are a prerequisite for the data integrity required for high value use cases. Care to mention how deep you are into it? Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. People who have been trading 100s to buy illegal goods must be making out. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. The happiness of society is made of the happiness of individuals and nothing else. February 19, 2018, 7:36 am. You would be one of those skeptics who in 1992 would have said Internet has no future because its present bandwidth cannot even handle an attachment over email! Thats what I have been saying guys. Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. Im not trying to convince anyone that bitcoin is the savior of the world but to put total trust in ones government, one that has a history of corruption is ignorant. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. This fiat economy itself is only 40 year old. Blockchain technology may do that too. Poor people have never initiated a tax loophole. You invested in GBTC? So, Bitcoin is supposed to replace all forms of physical currency in theory because people dont trust banks. Heres a great description of the whole scene by Chain CEO Adam Ludwin. I dont buy that much stuff. Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. As should everyone. Vijay, I think you should sell every non-bitcoin asset you own, borrow as much money as you possibly can, and buy as many bitcoins as possible. Im thrilled to see the godfather speak on this. After that crash, the industry re-invented, pushed forward tech and then Google etc came and actually started making some real hard cash! As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! The value of bitcoin is very far removed from any sensible fundamental valuation, and the thing driving up the price seems to be a common sense that it will be worth more in the future. This is exactly what I was thinking. FOMO! Bitcoin is the viral buzzword that has the momentum. If you want to move away from current currencies then you would probably have better luck starting a Craigslist for bartering website where you cant list prices. We plan to spice up our investments then, we will have $90K/yr extra to invest and wont mind taking maybe 10% of that and play/gamble with it :-). You may be smart enough to recognize why one currency is going up and another isnt and to not go all-in on something. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. This is also wrong, Zimbabwe did not abolish taxation yet the worth of Zimbabwe dollar has vanished anyway. Thats why wind farms are much more economical in areas with large scale hydro. That is something very valuable just like stocks are. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? The Vigilante Mr. Butler No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. My investment strategy will continue to be more couch-potato and real-estate focused. As for spending your Bitcoin, I digress. It is already in Beta testing and will be released this year. Bitcoin is not stupid per se. His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. Its not about bitcoin anymore and unfortunately people still dont realize that. The imaginary value of these valueless bits of computer data representsenough money to change the course of the entire human race, for example eliminating all poverty or replacing the entire worlds 800 gigawatts of coal power plants with solar generation. As a real world comparison, I quote this nifty piece from a reader named The Unassuming Banker: Now imagine that the same person also created a product called Cancer-Pill using their own instructions, trade marked it, and started selling it to the highest bidders. Shes allergic to nickel and tin and lead. Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. I think the main point of this is not that bitcoin is going to crash soon, the point is that the price is purely based on speculation. Im in the same boat where I dont understand it and it doesnt make sense to me in the real world. If not, you may want to think about selling., Scott Nicholson Now lets get back to your kick-ass money savvy engineering experiments :-), Oh, dont feel too bad. do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. ie beauty counter for nerds. Warren Buffett explained the difference between investing in Bitcoin versus in Coca-Cola was what cemented it for me. This is the same exact dynamic as tulip bulbs: Do tulip bulbs have a value? You WILL be wrong. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! Before stating something, do your research of what is a Ponzi and what is a Pyramid Scheme and whether Bitcoin fits that or not? They probably also didnt like my stated aversion to cyptocurrency and desire to stick with boring real estate. The sensible-sounding ones will say, Sure the G20 nations all have stable financial systems, but Bitcoin is a lifesaver in places like Venezuela where the government can vaporize your wealth when you sleep., The harder-core pundits say Even the US Federal Reserve is a bunch a CROOKS, stealing your money via INFLATION, and that nasty Fiat Currency they issue is nothing but TOILET PAPER!!. But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Mr. Money Mustac. January 19, 2018, 6:57 pm. Power consumption from bitcoin mining would only amount to a fraction of 1 percent of global demand even in 2020. So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. I agree totally. Bitcoins are scarce, your fingernails are not. Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. Nope I am not a skeptic, and also since I was there then (with pre-internet BBS). Even then, like with investing in a new company, youre taking substantial risks. Eenvoudig leven . Do you have any stats to share? That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. (Update from late 2018 Mike ended up being wayyyy wrong.). But they dont have to go down for there to be a US stock market crash in real terms. Also, what is the source of that study? You will not own your money more with virtual currencies. The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. The paper dollar is anonymous! Im not saying Bitcoin is the saviour of USD imperialism. Justin C Its not as simple as you make it personally. 1 Replies 290 Views February 10, 2023, 05:55:08 AM . January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. I am Mr. Money Mustache, mild mannered retired-at-30 software engineer who later became accidental leader of Ironic Cult of Mustachianism. A billion dollar gaming industry creating games worth watching. I totally agree. As a result, I have cashed out on their misfortune. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. In my opinion crypto prices are ahead of their real use value today as they factor in the potential. The issue with the .com bubble was internet companies were given a high valuation with no demonstration that they were profitable or even provided a service/product. Fiat currencies my friend is working overtime for its own demise. But yes: Bitcoin is silly at current prices. But I think you meant to write apologize on behalf of half of humanity. The other half of humanity has no internet access at all (internet access just eclipsed 50% of the worlds population this past year), and thus they should not bear any responsibility for the cryptocurrency craze. Then my father used the same toilet paper for his cars and his house? LOL. January 2, 2018, 6:01 pm. how is this different than a crypto? And EVERYONE is posting, podcasting, and reporting on it. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. My heart would break if I said goodbye to $200k. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? My mother in law collected beanie babies and I had the pleasure of looking up their worth this Christmas back hometheyre about $5 each and I will owe eBay 10% + shipping. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. Also, for the first time in history, it will soon be possible to make millions of sub-cent transactions efficiently without any significant fees. January 4, 2018, 2:48 pm. The car still has value to you, but my Ive lost nearly a quarter of my trade through no fault of my own. Read through TomTXs posts below Michael and you will get to know who started. All Rights Reserved |, 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent, Bitcoin: the Worlds First Decentralized Ponzi Scheme, the Problem with calling Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme, How to Give Money (and Get Happiness) More Easily. Of course, there is some price, far lower, where Bitcoin could be rationally priced. A similar dynamic is at play with stocks: Is $1 of ongoing future earnings worth sacrificing $1 today? Couldnt have said it any better myself. So Im going with no. Probably because it was the first and still the largest blockchain based tech, a lot of capital has gone into Bitcoin mining equipment. Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? Unless, of course, it starts rolling *in* terrible new earnings compared to price, which is certainly possible. And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. Because it is. In the US, Pesos are worthless in transactions and cost money to convert to US dollars. Ill go with Ponzi Scheme. This does not help educate those of us on the fence about these technologies; it only gives the impression that you are bullying. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. > On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. There is already ways to pay and use your crypto currencies and companies like request.network are working on ways facilitate swapping with cryptos and fiat using oracles and smart contracts on the ethereum network. The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. You mixed that up. In that forest there are old bricks. But my preferred broker, Interactive Brokers, doesnt allow shorting Bitcoin futures (the founder of IB seems very anti-bitcoin in general). 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